The injured CAQ: what effect on Monday’s vote?

It is an injured CAQ who will face the polls next Monday.

None of the last few weeks have really been good for her, as my colleague Rémi Nadeau pointed out to me in Qub on Friday.

It would be surprising if this had no effect on Monday’s vote.

  • Listen to Antoine Robitaille’s editorial during the Foisy – Robitaille meeting broadcast live every day at 12 p.m. Going through OLD radio :

Herron

I say “injured” first and foremost because of the many information on the slaughter at the CHSLD Herron, in 2020.

For this reason, Seniors Minister Marguerite Blais has been under heavy fire all week.

His former colleague, the liberal Pierre Arcand, yet not known to be a maverick, launched the most vehement attack on Thursday: “What did she do? How could she have been so incompetent? »

The day before, the PQ Véronique Hivon, especially renowned for her transpartisan openness, had also shown herself to be an assassin. The book of regulations of the National Assembly in hand, she had quoted the definition of “ministerial responsibility”.

Then she launched: “I know that the minister has a heart, that’s not what is in question. She visited 100 CHSLDs, she said it was important, the seniors. But what’s the point of all that if we don’t assume our responsibilities as ministers? »

Marguerite Blais has, thanks to her notoriety, always drawn up the parties for which she has presented herself. In Marie-Victorin, it could well be the opposite. And this, despite its justifications, of the “fire was everywhere” type, which many Quebecers will accept.

In the eyes of some voters, it is the credibility of the government in terms of health management (environment from which CAQ candidate Shirley Dorismond comes), but also crisis management, that this episode could have undermined. Two aspects that had propelled the CAQ, since the start of the pandemic, in the voting intentions.

Not to mention that those tired of the pandemic, vaguely or totally “antivax-antimasks”, anti-sanitary measures, will probably turn to the Conservative Party. Several of them probably voted CAQ in the past… or the others had never voted. Will they vote?

  • Listen to Antoine Robitaille’s program, on OLD radio:

The tram

The procrastination of the CAQ on the Quebec tramway project could also harm it on Monday.

Not only because in Marie-Victorin, public transit issues are decisive. But in addition, this debate within the government itself, settled by the Prime Minister, will undoubtedly have crystallized the impression, among some, of a government lagging behind in a battle, obsessed with cars.

Rate of participation

I will be told that these recent political events will have especially marked those who follow politics attentively. And that is not the case (unfortunately, I would say) for many potential voters in Marie-Victorin.

The real effect, on Monday’s vote, of the government’s bad weeks? Difficult to assess.

Especially since the turnout is traditionally low in a by-election. But this time, the parties have really gone all out. The PQ is playing its future there. And this is the only general rehearsal before the general election on October 3.

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