This study in the USA is very interesting and best summarized by the Swiss-Germans!
Purpose of the study
The article by V. Keddis, published in preprint (ie, not yet peer-reviewed) at 1er March 2022 is interested in determining the impact of anti-COVID-19 vaccination in the USA on COVID-19 mortality and in comparing this impact with that of the state of health of populations exposed to the virus. This approach is interesting since it complements the data on the lack of effect of vaccination on the contamination rates on the one hand (already presented on Réinfocovid here and there), and on the susceptibility to the disease linked to general state of health of populations on the other hand (also presented on Réinfocovid here).
For each of the 51 American states, the author used the official figures characterizing the diversity of the populations of each state (State Population by Characteristics: 2010-2020) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) which concerns the state of health of the populations of the different States, the different pathologies present, the use of prevention services, etc. The vaccination data are those provided by the CDC (Center for Disease Control), a public body which manages disease monitoring in the USA.
The author used all of these data to calculate the mortality rates according to different causes, by age group, as well as according to the vaccination rates associated with the vaccination dynamics. The notion of vaccination dynamics complements the vaccination rate usually used. The vaccination dynamic is the sum of the “weight” of the injections per day (whether it is 1time dose 2nde dose, booster, etc.), the “weight” of the daily vaccination being the percentage of the population vaccinated on that day multiplied by the number of days remaining until December 31, 2021. Indeed, it is easy to understand that if a vaccine is effective and if a population is vaccinated very quickly, for example in 1 month, the protective effect of the vaccine will be reached more quickly than if the population takes 1 year to reach this same rate. To illustrate this point, we can compare the two states where the dynamics are the most different: Alabama, with a dynamic of 281, and Vermont, with a dynamic of 481, or 70% more. Their vaccination rates as of December 31, 2021 are, however, similar: 53.3% and 56.9%, i.e. a difference of 3.6%. It is therefore expected that the population of Vermont will be better protected than that of Alabama.
The following table presents the correlations between death rates for several pathologies according to risk or good health factors for the last three: physical exercise, vegetable consumption, fruit consumption for the year 2021. A correlation of 1 ( or -1) is the maximum (minimum) possible. A correlation of 0 indicates that there is no relationship between the disease and the indicated health condition. A high and positive figure here indicates a factor facilitating the pathology, all the more so the farther it is from zero, whereas a negative figure here indicates a protective effect all the more marked the farther the figure is from zero. Numbers in red indicate that the correlation is statistically significant (p<0.05).
We see as expected that someone whose health is already fragile for more than 2 weeks (Physical Heath not Well 14+ Days) or an obese person (BMI 30+) have high correlations (0.73 and 0.64 respectively) with COVID-19 death rates (column 1: deaths involving COVID-19 and possibly pneumonia). Conversely, consuming fruit significantly protects against the risk of COVID-19 death (-0.75).
The author is also interested in the association of vaccination rate and dynamics on the one hand and evolution of the COVID-19 mortality rate on the other. After adjusting the data according to age groups, it separates the 51 American states into two groups: the 31 states for which the COVID-19 death rate has increased, and the other 20 for which the COVID-19 death rate decreased during the period covered by this study, from December 14, 2020 to January 31, 2022.
For the 31 States having had an increase in the death rate, the statistical analyzes show that this increase in mortality is unrelated to the dynamics of vaccination. A statistically significant link is considered when the p factor is less than 0.05. Here, p=0.88.
For the 20 states that had a lower death rate, the statistical analyzes show that this drop in mortality is unrelated to the vaccination dynamics. Here, p=0.05, with a correlation coefficient of 0.15, very far from 1 indicating a perfect correlation.
Finally, the author establishes for the USA the relative importance of vaccination against different health factors with respect to COVID-19 death rates:
It appears that the relative importance of vaccination is at best comparable to the importance of the health factor considered (Poor general health >14 days), and generally less, or even overwhelmed, by the importance of the health factor considered. : “Obesity”, with a relative importance in the death rate 9.66 times greater than the protection provided by vaccination, andt the protection due to “Exercise and fruit” which is 10.14 times greater than that of vaccination.
This work, thanks to a new calculation approach, confirms the results previously obtained and already presented on Reinfocovid here, there and there, which question the effectiveness of vaccination on protection against infection by SARS-CoV-2, and which demonstrate the superiority of the protection offered by a state of general good health. This is particularly important for several reasons:
1- It is clear today that the effectiveness of vaccine injections disappears over time as well as over the evolution of the sequences of SARS-CoV-2. This increasingly questions the validity of the health abuses observed in many countries, authoritarian abuses presented as necessary for the well-being of populations. Indeed, the only health solution would have been these costly vaccine injections both financially and in human resources and in the confidence of a significant part of the population for their rulers;
2- The notion of “whatever the cost” for health is very generous. The good news is that we now know that these financial efforts will be much more effective by targeting them on the general health prevention of the population in order to limit physical inactivity and junk food.and . Experimental drug treatments, if they still prove necessary in addition to repositioned molecules whose effectiveness is increasingly demonstrated would be restricted to at-risk populations: people with comorbidities and/or the elderly.
 V. Keddis, “The relative impact of vaccination momentum on COVID-19 rates of death in the USA in 2020/2021. The forgotten role of population wellness,” Public and Global Health, preprint, Mar. 2022. doi: 10.1101/2022.03.01.22271721.
 I. Efimenko, S. Nackeeran, S. Jabori, JAG Zamora, S. Danker, and D. Singh, “Treatment with Ivermectin Is Associated with Decreased Mortality in COVID-19 Patients: Analysis of a National Federated Database,” International Journal of Infectious Diseases, flight. 116, p. S40, Mar. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.096.