The real next election… | The Journal of Quebec

This fall, Quebecers will vote, and unless there is an absolutely improbable reversal, François Legault will win.

The other parties will each have their own challenge.

Will the PQ manage to survive?

Will the PLQ be wiped off the map of French-speaking Quebec?

Will QS be condemned to vegetate in its urban and student fortresses, with no serious possibility of expanding?


Will the Conservative Party confirm its breakthrough in the Quebec region?

But the power will remain in the hands of the CAQ.

Another election is looming, however, almost as important, although less thought of. I am talking about the race for the leadership of the CAQ, which should happen during the second term, unless François Legault gives in to the temptation of the third term, which seems highly unlikely.

The question of his successor will be much more complex than it seems.

Because the CAQ is a shaky and improbable coalition, which brings together hard federalists and sleeping sovereignists, ardent nationalists and accounting minds foreign to any concern for identity.

François Legault had the political legitimacy to bring these people together on a transitional project: to get Quebec out of the PQ-Liberal duopoly.

But once this exit has taken place, and once the CAQ has governed and reformed Quebec, how can these people who have little in common be held together?

Imagine a leadership race between the ultra-federalist Sonia Lebel, the equally ultra-federalist Geneviève Guilbault, the very nationalist and probably clandestine sovereignist Simon-Jolin Barette.

It is not only shades of Caquismo that will clash, but radically contradictory political lines.

Let us add an element to this reflection: depending on what will have become of the PQ at that time, it is not forbidden to think that a separatist leader decides to join the CAQ by inviting the sovereignists to accompany him there to install in the party.

In the name of what would such a leader do this?

We guess the reason: insofar as the CAQ is now the main nationalist party in Quebec, to the point of occupying all the blue space, it would be natural for the sovereignists to converge there.

Just as there has long been a separatist wing that voted Yes to the PQ, there could be a separatist wing deciding to act in a broader context at the CAQ.

Let’s not forget either that the political context will have changed.

The Supreme Court will probably have condemned or partially dismantled Bill 21, which will provoke a nationalist reaction in Quebec, in Meech 2 mode.


And many nationalists who had bet on a new great risk within the CAQ could then say to themselves that Quebec has one last chance to take its destiny into its own hands.

Especially since the awareness of our linguistic situation will have worsened.

At the very least, the national question will become topical again.

And during this leadership race will be at stake a good part of the future of Quebec.

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