What if Éric Duhaime’s PCQ became the official opposition?

This is called total dominance.

The latest poll published in The newspaper confirms not only that the CAQ has ceased its descent, but that it is now on the rise.

After a widely approved budget and a victory in the Marie-Victorin by-election, the re-election of the CAQ seems to be on track.

By capturing 44% of the voting intentions today, i.e. a lead of 27 percentage points over the PLQ, François Legault’s party could easily elect more than 100 deputies out of the 125.

One can even think of opening the book of records of political domination. For the nostalgic, we are not far from Duplessis 1948 and Bourassa 1973.

The real race is in the back peloton, among the oppositions dividing the opposition vote to the government.

Who can ride?

What if I told you that Éric Duhaime’s PCQ may end up second and form the official opposition?

Are you laughing already?

This is far from being the case today, let’s be clear.

But the latest Léger poll announces movements that are not yet perceptible.

First, the PCQ’s vote looks solid.

71% of its voters say their choice is final. More than any other party.

The oppositions are on tectonic plates: more than half of the PQ and solidarity can still change their minds between now and the election.

For QS, these numbers must be distressing. Everything would lead to believe in a rise of the left party in the polls.

Their ideas are championed in the media, their media coverage is positive, they campaign on real concerns, GND is appreciated…

However, QS is stagnating at more or less 15%. In ten years, their average in the polls has increased by at most 5%.

The Liberals are threatened by the creation of a party solely dedicated to Anglophones.

Combined with a historically low score among its last (46%), the liberal boat is sinking. Anglade has no choice but to take out the rescue boats and save his last supporters. The Franco vote is already in the water, sacrificed.

Which brings us to this conclusion: the only growing party is the PCQ.

And he could enjoy an election under the healthcare umbrella.

Differences exist between the positions of the CAQ, the PLQ, the PQ and QS in health, but they are not major. Few voters could identify them.

Whether on COVID or on the universality of care, it is Éric Duhaime who embodies the divergence. And that could benefit him.

Another factor could benefit him: Pierre Poilievre.

Duhaime and Poilievre are alter egos. We are witnessing a meeting of minds on their ideas, as the National Post this week. A meeting of minds on their methods, we might add, in their tribal and outrageous way of practicing politics.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, could legitimize the presence of Éric Duhaime in Quebec politics.

Archipelago

Quebecers will soon define an adversary at the CAQ.

The oppositions are divided into different archipelagos: QS in Montreal, the PLQ west of Montreal, the PCQ in Quebec and the PQ in Bas-Saint-Laurent.

You never know how public opinion evolves.

But one certainty remains: Quebecers must take the Duhaime hypothesis seriously.

The opposition parties even more.


To the question “Is your choice at the provincial level final or is it possible that you will change your mind?”, 71% of Conservative Party of Quebec voters say that their choice is final.

To the question “Is your choice at the provincial level final or is it possible that you will change your mind?”, 71% of Conservative Party of Quebec voters say that their choice is final.

Source: Léger survey (April 21, 2022)

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